Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Polls Are Like Bills...

they just keep coming, they all say something different, and it takes just a single odd one to turn everything on end.

Between Zogby, Rasmussen, and Gallup, you can pick and choose to get the picture of the election you really want (unless you are Rep. Ron Paul, in which case the picture rarely changes). I was already over this whole primary process, but I guess I can follow along and try to keep up with all the new numbers. In the meantime, here are my presidential picks for 2008.

Democrats: It's gonna be Sen. Clinton. Sen. Obama might have glittery poll numbers, but is still behind in fundraising by almost ten million dollars. And even with a Clinton slump, she still leads nationally by a wide margin. She's politically experienced, something which Obama still is not, and has an army of rich Hollywood liberals to help her along the way, another thing, Obama is lacking.

Republicans: This is more complex, as there are more people. Giuliani is the clear frontrunner nationally, but Romney, according to most polls, leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. If Mike Huckabee continues his rise to national prominence, the fact that he is a liberal with a fundamentalist Christian streak will come out. Exactly how much momentum he picks up after Iowa and New Hampshire will be the ultimate test. I think that Romney will be able to pull it out, and thus I predict Romney will win the nomination.

Independents: Mayor Bloomburg, with up to one billion dollars at his disposal, could still launch a center-left campaign as an independent. If Bloomburg does enter the race, everything is out the window. But I find this unlikely, as he will probably use the threat of his entry to try and influence the process.

In closing, elections are better than television. You know why.