According to a recent poll, Sen. Hillary Clinton is leading Sen. Barrack Obama in the Pennsylvania Primary by an even 20 percentage points, with four percent left undecided. Additionally, ten percent of those surveyed, likely Democrat primary voters, say they would never vote for Sen. Clinton, whereas 24 percent said they would never vote for Sen. Obama.
The question remains whether or not Sen. Obama has support among, and the ability to turn out, young voters who are not considered “likely primary voters.” If he does, then most of the poling data that comes out during this cycle is off. If not, then the hype and mystique that Sen. Obama has worked up over this past month was a sham. He has convinced many of his inevitability, but has offered up little proof of this. A month of loud and uplifting (only in that it is so empty it can lift itself and take voters with it) does not a successful campaign make.
You know what day it is! It's Mitt's last chance to turn things around, and a major test for the Democrats to see if Sen. Obama's message of change is more "changey" than Sen. Clinton's message of change.
I've got class for a few hours today, but I'll keep updating the results as they come in and I get a chance.
My hopes: Mitt stops the bleeding and an enraged McCain says something stupid, while Hillary stomps Obama
My predictions: McCain "straight-talks" his way to the nomination, and Hillary stomps Obama.
California-McCain 40%, Romney 36%, Huck 10% This state is critical for Romney. Whether he wins or not, he at least needs a significant chunk of delegates to even think about continuing after today. Jim Geraghty reminds that these are preliminary results, without a district-by-district breakdown, and likely without 3 million absentee ballots. This might get a lot closer.
Missouri-Romney 36%, McCain 32%, Huck 25% This was also a big state for Romney. It will be a major surprise if he holds on for the win here.
Georgia-Huck 34%, Romney 31%, McCain 30% While I don't know the strategic importance of Georgia, I think it will be exciting to see how it turns out with all three candidates so close.
New England- McCain wins pretty handily. No surprise there. Liberal is as liberal does. **Massachusetts, Romney's home state, is an obvious exception, but Delaware apparently is also going Mitt's way.
The South- Not counting the ones mentioned above, Huck is leading in most Southern states, followed by McCain and Romney, respectively. McCain has a slight lead over Huck in Oklahoma, though Romney is close enough that he might be able to stage a comeback...
McCain's winning his home state of Arizona, but only by five points...
WARNING: EXIT NUMBERS EARLY AND DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL VOTES:
OBAMA: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...
CLINTON: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47... New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31... Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41...
There are a couple close states there, but it looks like most Democrats have decided one way or the other. I also notice that Obama seems to have a lot more states behind his name. What else could explain it but....the audacity of hope. Well, my hopes were apparently too audacious because neither Mitt nor Hillary are winning out and out, but where there's a clever marketing strategy, there's a way:
UPDATE (11:15 pm): Well, my predictions were kind of right. McCain "straight-talked" his way through the day, and Hillary leads Obama, but she certainly didn't stomp him. She may be stomping her feet right now, as Obama did fairly well today. Things are much closer for the Democrats because (as far as I can tell) each state gave out delegates proportionately rather than 'winner-take-all' like many of the Republican primaries did.
The winner-take-all states explain the much bigger difference in the GOP numbers. To borrow a nearly worn-out phrase, I Hate Huckabee. Clearly, he fancies himself a vice president. It would be tempting to vote against a McCain-Huck ticket simply out of spite. Must...resist...cultural suicide...
Alas, it seems this spells the end for our hero Mitt Romney. We hardly knew ye. There are only three words that can express my disappointment and shame:
